The Preliminary Competition for Miss Supranational 2023 has taken place. Inevitably, this causes a shake-up in fans’ and followers’ lists. In what’s easily the most competitive batch since the pageant’s inception, more than half of the roster have valid reasons to place.

The following candidates are just outside my Top 24 picks, but I have a gnawing feeling I’ll regret classifying some of them in this tier later on.

STRONG POSSIBILITIES
Bolivia, Botswana, Cambodia, Costa Rica, Curaçao, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Japan, Mozambique, Namibia, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, Romania, The Bahamas, Togo 

In a year foreseen to be dominated by Latinas, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic can still easily claim slots. Same goes for Bolivia, who’s just as worthy as the original bet, and Costa Rica, who makes history as her country’s first black Supra-Candidate. 

Curaçao might also sustain her island’s recent success, and there’s Namibia, while not a frontrunner, is still a country to watch here. Speaking of African bets, there’s Togo, a 2022 dropout who’s finally here and more polished than before, and Botswana, the best newcomer of the year. From Asia, there’s MGI alumna Cambodia, alumna who can easily place with other ASEAN favorites, and opera-belle Japan, a half-Filipina Riyo Mori dead ringer. Let’s not also forget the Supra-Chat revelations, who likely scored high in interview. There’s Romania, who’s sworn to defend her country’s streak; Nicaragua, who beat other Latin favorites in her group; and Haiti, a 32-year-old lawyer who donned one of the most risqué preliminary gowns. 

Finally, we have the following Fast Track qualifiers, who are one challenge win away from possible placement. There’s debuting Mozambique, who’s up for Supra-Fan Vote and erstwhile champ Paraguay, who’s up for Supra-Influencer. Finally, there’s Supra-Model finalist The Bahamas. With her archipelago celebrating its 50^th Independence Day this week, a placement would be a timely gift. 

Now, on to my Top 24…

TOP 24 PICKS:
Germany, Gibraltar, Guatemala, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Spain, United States, Venezuela, Vietnam

Four of last year’s Top Five countries are in this tier. While not frontrunners like their respective predecessors, they can very well continue their streaks, like reigning country South Africa, which sent a radiant follow-up candidate, and Venezuela, which can very well remain in contention, if not bag the first Supra-Crown. It’s also hard to bet against Indonesia and Vietnam. Their performances still proved worthy for inclusion, and one can’t simply invalidate those fast-track nominations. The support remains rock-solid.

Also gunning for back-to-back placements are Malaysia, whose overall presence might seal the deal; Guatemala, the Nadia Ferreira clone whose first name happens to be an anagram of “Nadia”; and Poland. To be honest, we’ve seen the host country more strongly represented before, but a shutout still feels unlikely. 

Seeing how her ignored predecessor ended up winning another pageant, it might be wise to include Germany this time. That jaw-dropping gown might also have boosted her chances. It’s also nice to see the likes of Mexico, the United States, and Spain back on track. And speaking of Spain, we cap off this tier with its UK-governed tip. You know, Gibraltar doesn’t always make impact in pageantry. But when it does, it sends shockwaves (Miss World 2009 and 2013, anyone?). Should this aspiring educator pass muster, it will be a more-than-welcome rarity. 

We now move on to the upper half…

TOP 12 PICKS
Canada, Cote d’Ivoire, Ecuador, India, Thailand, United Kingdom, Zimbabwe

Canada continues to rise, with no signs of slowing down just yet. Cote d’Ivoire has visibly upped the ante since the turn of the decade, and after sending an impressive candidate last year, this might finally be their year. Zimbabwe could very well replicate her Miss Earth 2022 finish. Same goes for MGI alumna Ecuador, who might struggle surpassing her 1^stRunner-Up finish, but is still a shoo-in. UK’s Miss Universe 2021 alumna also deserves to finish a tier higher this time, while former MUT mainstay Thailand is also still every bit a showstopper. And finally, just outside the Top Five is India, who can still very well sneak herself in, especially with her compatriot, 2016 winner Srinidhi Shetty, in the panel.

It feels more award show than pageant at this point, honestly. Because anyone from the next tier can be be crowned. 

TOP FIVE PICKS
Czech Republic, Colombia, Peru, Philippines

Colombia joined the race simply as one of the Latin possibilities, but her preliminary performance bolstered her chances. That country could use a bit more crowns, to be honest. Ditto for Peru, who might just score another memorable lofty placement for her country. Czech Republic’s preliminary performance was arguably the best that evening. But given how she fared in Supra-Chat, Q and A might be her stumbling block. Finally, we have half-Belgian Philippines, who historically struggled with preliminaries, but has now dramatically evolved. Expect her prospects to sky-rocket once she reaches Q and A. 

Really, it’s an open battle where any favorite can win. But given certain factors, I’m placing my bets for now on…

MISS SUPRANATIONAL 2023 PICK
Brazil

Knowing how this edition expanded its age limit to 33, why not solidify that message by crowning this veteran? She’s been robbed of a crown before, but she’s never stopped evolving since. In joining this race, she showed her willingness to start over, to do the work, and pursue a goal that once evaded her. She’s still in fighting form and now speaks with more passion than ever. With more experience and more maturity, she can help take the brand to new heights and redefine the pageant as one that doesn’t look at age, but at one’s merits. With other organizations opening doors to other genders and other marital statuses, crowning this icon would be another leap towards inclusivity. Not to mention, also long overdue.