It’s been said that awards are losing their luster, if not their significance altogether. The consensus has to do with the results reflecting that of a biased elite, rather than the general public. For me, it’s just a matter of looking at it as glamorized opinion, and the eventual choices don’t necessarily dictate the absolute best. It’s just one perspective among many, at the end of the day, and it all boils down to celebrating an art form. That’s why watching the Oscars remains a personal annual tradition, even if our choices don’t always align. That’s not the point. In essence, it’s still an event – one that doesn’t hesitate to shed its glitzy exterior to provide jaw-dropping moments like Glenn Close twerking or John Cena streaking. Apart from handing out golden statuettes, it still aims to entertain.

This year’s nominees were announced last January 23 in a special hosted by Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott. There were the usual snubs like Challengers scoring zero nods, All We Imagine As Light not being submitted for International Feature, and The Substance’s Margaret Qualley losing a shot at Best Supporting Actress. The biggest shocker, however, was Emilia Pérez scoring a record 13 nominations amidst divided opinion and heavy backlash. Is it really within the same league as Ben-Hur, Lord of the Rings, and Titanic? I, for one, don’t think so, despite its obvious merits. And given the uproar that further surfaced, it’s fortunate it even stands a chance at winning two.

Conan O’Brien‘s slated to host the ceremonies for the first time. Much as I’ve always been a fan of his schtick, hosting the Oscars has always been a thankless endeavor. It’s something even the likes of Alec Baldwin, Steve Martin, and Jimmy Kimmel couldn’t escape unscathed. And let’s not get started on Chris Rock literally getting slapped in 2022. Whatever the case, there will surely be quotable quotes and I look forward to his deadpan reactions throughout. Besides, his Emmy hosting stints were once praised.

Without further ado, here are my picks for this year, in the order by which last year’s categories were presented:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez 

PICK: ZOE SALDAÑA. There were jury members who anonymously revealed they picked Isabella Rosellini as the headstrong Sister Agnes, while Ariana Grande might easily be the sentimental pick as Glinda. Whatever happens, she already vindicated herself from her recent Grammy snubs. But much as the BAFTAs called out Zoe Saldaña‘s profanity-ridden speech, she remains Emilia Pérez’s brightest ray of hope at this point, along with “El Mal” for Original Song. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck! 

PICK: WANDER TO WONDER. Right now, it seems to be a toss-up between Iran’s 2D war-themed In the Shadow of the Cypress and the Netherlands’ stop motion fantasy Wander to Wonder. While the former enjoyed mileage in Tribeca, the latter can conceivably gain the edge with its eye-catching visuals. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE 
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

PICK: THE WILD ROBOT. Latvia’s Flow was the surprising pick for this category’s Golden Globe equivalent last January. But, don’t forget, the Academy, more often than not, still tends to pick more obvious (Western) choices here. With two more nods for Sound and Score, this looks like The Wild Robot’s to lose. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anora– Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Mortiz Binder and Tim Felhbaum; co-written by Alex David
The Substance– Coralie Fargeat 

PICK: ANORA. Jesse Eisenberg solidified his rep as a scribe with A Real Pain, while Coralie Fargeat bagged the Critics’ Choice equivalent of this category. But, the rule of thumb is that Best Picture frontrunners, more often than not, tend to be favored in their screenplay categories. With Anora swiftly gathering steam, it might just snag its first win here. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold and Jay Cocks
Conclave – Peter Straughan
Emilia Pérez – Jacques Audiard 
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing – Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley 

PICK: CONCLAVE. It would be nice if Nickel Boys overcomes the odds in the only category it’s up for, other from Best Picture, but it’s a long shot at this point. And with Emilia Pérez largely deemed fallen from grace, Conclave might as well maintain its stronghold here. 

BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIRSTYLING
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance 
Wicked 

PICK: THE SUBSTANCE. Shout out to A Different Man for making Edward’s neurofibromatosis look convincing. It’s a lone nomination well deserved. However, no other image churned stomachs more than the grotesque Monstro Elisasue, Coralie Fargeat’s poster girl for science misused. The Substance should lead this race by a mile. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

PICK: WICKED. The first half of Dune was a technical category shoo-in in 2022, and as such, it won six statuettes that year. With its equally-qualified follow-up facing steeper odds, a similar sweep is not foreseen. That makes Wicked the more highly-favored blockbuster entry in this race, for revitalizing the magic of cinematic Oz for a younger audience. 

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

PICK: WICKED. Gladiator’s under-nominated sequel might put up a fight in its lone category and Nosferatu’s period pieces were undoubtedly chilling, but Wicked’s more likely to earn props for similar reasons as Production Design. It felt like reliving MGM’s glory days, even if we obviously weren’t around yet. 

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Emilia Pérez (France)
Flow (Latvia)
The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
I’m Still Here (Brazil)
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

PICK: I’M STILL HERE. Latvia’s Flow is also up for Best Animated Feature, while Emilia Pérez enjoyed started the season strong by winning the same category in the Golden Globes. But, again, we don’t know the extent by which its negative press hurt its overall chances. So, even if it’s up for far less categories than France’s Mexican-set story, there’s reason to believe that votes could swing on Brazil’s favor. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

PICK: KIERAN CULKIN. Yura Borisov was an underrated delight as Anora’s henchman with a heart, while Jeremy Strong excels in his first post-Succession outing. However, it’s the latter’s former onscreen brother, Kieran Culkin, who’s taken this category by storm from the start. He was, indisputably, A Real Pain’s lifeblood and is poised to still be honored for such. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

PICK: DUNE: PART TWO. Much as Wicked is still within broom-striking distance, this is one technical category where Dune: Part Two is poised to prevail. This modern visual interpretation of Frank Herbert’s world continues to stun, even if the movie’s no frontrunner. 

BEST FILM EDITING
Anora 
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked

PICK: CONCLAVE. The Brutalist started the race as a favorite, but not necessarily the undisputed. Nick Emerson might just bag the statuette.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT 
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

PICK: I AM READY, WARDEN. The frontrunners in this category this year appear to deal with issues of mortality, with the odds-on favorite seemingly being “I Am Ready, Warden”, a story of a man trying to reform himself behind bars after being incarcerated for murder. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE 
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane

PICK: NO OTHER LAND. Sad as it is not to see the short-listed Daughters in the final mix, it probably never would have had a shot against Norway and Palestine’s co-production, No Other Land. It’s a timely non-narrative that centers on young Palestinian activist Basel Adra, whose friendship with a Israeli journalist is put to the test. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu

PICK: THE BRUTALIST. Jarin Blaschke appears to be a sentimental underdog favorite for the Nosferatu update, and props to Maria for scoring its sole nod here. But with The Brutalist having a strong awards season start, the three-hour epic might just take a shot at a technical sweep – but not if the box office champs can help it. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT 
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent 

PICK: ANUJA. Co-produced by Priyanka Chopra-Jonas, the inspiring Anuja might just benefit from its easy accessibility (it’s on Netflix). The touching tale centers on a gifted nine-year-old girl given a shot at education. 

BEST SOUND
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

PICK: WICKED. With Dune: Part Two not receiving as much love as the first installment, Wicked seems to be the blockbuster-of-choice in a year musicals came with guns (or brooms) blazing.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot 

PICK: THE BRUTALIST. Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers won the same category in Critics’ Choice. But with the said sports drama completely shut out here, Daniel Blumberg might just, well, score for The Brutalist. Then again, Conclave’s also been gathering a lot of steam. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“El Mal” – Emilia Perez
“The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” – Emilia Perez
“Never Too Late” – Elton John: Never Too Late

PICK: “El Mal”. Shout out to legends Elton John, who previously won for The Lion King, and Diane Warren, who’s indisputably the Glenn Close of this category. However, this is one race where Emilia Perez still maintains its lead (aside from Supporting Actress). “El Mal” has been dominating since the beginning, with “Mi Camino” likely close behind. With no other formidable contender, that double nomination bodes well.

BEST ACTOR
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice 

PICK: TIMOTHEÉ CHALAMET. Sebastian Stan earned a Golden Globe for Comedy, albeit for A Different Man, but, really, this race is virtually a toss-up between Brody and Chalamet. Brody almost had a perfect streak this season until Chalamet’s 11th Hour SAG win. So, suddenly, replicating that Pianist victory seems slightly less assured and Chalamet might just snag his first Oscar. But whether or not the materializes, the young actor really does seem destined to be one of the greats. 

BEST DIRECTOR
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance 

PICK: SEAN BAKER. At one point, this seemed like an open battle among the five first-time nominees, with Brady Corbet claiming Golden Globes and BAFTAs for The Brutalist and the un-nominated Jon M. Chu nabbing Critics’ Choice for Wicked. But after his triumph at the recently-held Directors’ Guild Awards, Sean Baker seems to have taken the lead for Anora. Should he manage, it would be a landmark breakthrough for the subversive director who once shot a feature with three cellphones.   

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here 

PICK: DEMI MOORE. Gascón’s Twitter/X scandal puts her chances next to zero at this point, while Erivo might have better prospects with Wicked’s follow-up due later this year. Torres might have earned votes by way of her Golden Globe victory, while Madison was a pleasantly surprising BAFTA upset. But with her decades-spanning underdog tale and poignant speeches gaining more and more virality by the day, it’s hard to see Demi Moore not earning her overdue Oscar moment. Her portrayal of an aging actress resorting to mad science to stay relevant wasn’t only one of the most audacious performances of last year. It’s also now also her career-best. 

BEST PICTURE
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked 

PICK: ANORA. Nickel Boys has only one other nomination and even that’s a long shot. It makes one wonder why Supporting Actor shoo-in A Real Pain wasn’t granted a slot instead. Brazil’s I’m Still Here is a wildcard contender at best, but it might just usurp International Feature from the widely-derided Emilia Pérez. Blockbusters like Dune 2 and Wicked are out of the question, while personal favorite The Substance is a virtual long shot. It’s a tight race, all in all. But Anora’s Producers Guild win might have given it the upper hand. It won’t be a breeze, however, as The Brutalist still has strong momentum and, given Pope Francis’ real-life plight, a Conclave win might be seen as a timely parallel.